In its latest report, the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) is signaling continued pessimism about the economy from rural bankers, nearly two-thirds of whom expect 2025 farm income to decline. What follows is the University’s summary findings, released March 20, 2025, followed by reports from several key states and an overview from February’s data.
For the 18th time in the past 19 months, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below the 50.0 reading in March, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for March increased to a weak 41.1 from February’s 38.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
Creighton University offered the March 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance as follows:
- The overall Rural Mainstreet index fell below growth neutral for the 18th time in the past 19 months.
- For the 10th time in the past 11 months, farmland prices sank.
- In terms of 2025 farm income, compared to 2024 farm income, only 3.7% of bankers expect an increase, while 62.9% predict a decline.
- Farm equipment sales dropped for the 19th straight month.
- Only 7.5% of bank CEOs recommend returning to January 2025 tariff levels.
- According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to the first month of 2024, fell from $1.1 billion in 2024 to $964.3 million in 2025 for a decline of 13.9%.
- Mexico began 2025 as the top destination for ag exports, accounting for 44.8% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
“The economic outlook for 2025 farm income remains weak according to bank CEOs. However, farm commodity prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability among a high share of producers,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
Approximately 62.9% of bankers expect 2025 farm income to be down from 2024’s weak farm income. Only 3.7% of bank CEOs predict 2025 farm income to expand from 2024’s level.
Comments from bankers in March were included in the summary report:
Jeff Bonnett, President of Havana National Bank in Havana, Ill., said, “It appears that our farm operators should brace for yet another decrease in gross farm income, and I have not yet heard anyone cheering about ‘cheaper’ input prices for 2025.” Bonnet also said, “A third year of extremely low corn and soybean prices (2025 prices are expected to remain low) continues to keep us on edge. The Federal relief coming this week for 2024 will help our farm producers but is half of what was anticipated and discussed at the end of 2024.”
According to Jim Eckert, Board Member, Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill., “Most of Central Illinois is very dry. Going into 2025 will require timely rains to raise a good crop to offset at least some of the poor grain prices.”
“We are noticing some leases falling through since the renters cannot obtain operating financing for 2025,” said Terry Engelken, Vice President of Washington State Bank in Washington, Iowa.
State Statistics
As part of Creighton University’s RMI, the researchers also released detailed reports on several states, 5 of which are shared here in their entirety:
In Illinois, the state’s March Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) slumped to 30.4 from February’s 34.2. The farmland price index declined to 35.8 from February’s 42.5. The state’s new hiring index improved to 48.3 from 42.5 in February. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, Illinois exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to January 2024, fell by $55.7 million for a decline of 13.4%. China was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 25.2% of January Illinois agriculture and livestock exports.
Iowa data shows that March’s RMI for the state improved to a weak 39.2 from 32.8 in February. Iowa’s farmland price index for March sank to 33.6 from 38.1 in February. Iowa’s new hiring index for March soared to 55.7 from February’s 40.8. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to January 2024, fell by $62.2 million for a decline of 37.3%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 77.4% of January Iowa agriculture and livestock exports.
The Kansas RMI for March decreased slightly to 36.5 from February’s 36.8. The state’s farmland price index dropped to 32.6 from 39.3 in February. The new hiring index for Kansas increased to 44.5 from 42.2 in February. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, Kansas exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to January 2024, fell by $22.0 million for a decline of 20.9%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 83.5% of January Kansas agriculture and livestock exports.
Across Minnesota, the March RMI for Minnesota plummeted to 46.2 from 62.4 in February. Minnesota’s farmland price index dropped to 40.3 from 46.5 in February. The new hiring index for March rose to 53.9 from February’s 51.2. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, Minnesota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to January 2024, fell by $14.8 million for a decline of 16.3%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 44.4% of January Minnesota agriculture and livestock exports.
The Nebraska Rural Mainstreet Index for March sank to 32.6 from February’s 37.0. The state’s farmland price index for March fell to 36.4 from February’s 39.3. Nebraska’s new hiring index improved to 49.1 from 42.2 in February. According to trade data from the International Trade Association, Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to January 2024, fell by $10.9 million for a decline of 8.7%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 43.0% of January Nebraska agriculture and livestock exports.
February Findings Forecast Continued Downturn
An update was shared in a recent Shortliner article published by the Farm Equipment Manufacturers Association (FEMA). The Rural Mainstreet Index, a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, was conducted by Ernie Goss, PhD, Creighton University.
The summary cited data from February’s RMI on farm equipment sales, farm and ranch land prices and offered insight into how rural bankers are reacting to the current economic conditions. Excerpts from that online report shared by FEMA Feb. 28 follow.
The farm equipment sales index rose to a very weak 18.2 from January’s 17.4. “This is the 19th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss, who is the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
Noting data on farming and ranch land prices, according to the current Rural Mainstreet Index, for the 8th time in the past 9 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. It further noted that the region’s farmland price index fell to 40.0, its lowest level since October 2024, and down from 42.0 in January.
In assessing their confidence, or lack thereof, the February RMI found that rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next 6 months. The February confidence index sank to 40.0 from January’s 42.3. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to push banker confidence below growth neutral,” said Goss.
Full March RMI report here.
