According to a recent survey from Stifel, North American small ag dealers reported 1.1% sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2022, with Stifel analysts saying that among dealers they, "saw the weakest performance which we attribute to difficult comps." Small ag equipment dealers are also forecasting 0.4% sales growth over 2023, also due to tougher comps in 2022.
Small ag equipment dealers reported 1.1% sales growth in the fourth quarter of last year, compared to 4.8% sales growth from large ag equipment dealers. A net 4% of surveyed small ag dealers reporting their sales were lower than expected.
One small ag equipment dealers said their inventory levels were recovered, saying, "Inventory levels are great right now. Customer leads are slowing. We feel 2023 will be flat compared to 2022."
Surveyed small ag dealers indicated they expected 0.4% sales growth over the next year. A net 17% of small ag dealers expect sales to weaken in 2023.
One dealer forecast a double digit percentage drop for 2023 based in part on rising interest rates and input prices.
"We primarily sell 120 hp tractors and smaller and are heavily weighted toward the hay business. Cattle prices are OK, but the price of inputs does not allow for black ink. The compact tractor market is going to be in the tank this year because the free COVID money has been spent and the interest rates are not too attractive. We are expecting a double digit percentage drop in business."
